The United Kingdom is facing a significant shortfall in its tourism sector, with a decline of nearly three million overseas visitors annually compared to pre-pandemic figures. This decline highlights a sluggish recovery in the tourism industry, contrasting sharply with other sectors that have managed to rebound more effectively.
In 2022 and 2023, while there was an increase in inbound visitor numbers, they remained below the 2019 peak of 40.9 million. Last year, the UK welcomed 38 million tourists, and projections for 2024 suggest a slight improvement to 38.7 million. However, these figures are still shy of pre-pandemic levels.
In real terms, spending by tourists has decreased by 8%, translating to a £2.8 billion reduction when adjusted for inflation. Certain UK cities have experienced the most significant drops in tourism. Brighton saw a 32% decline, Newcastle a 26% reduction, and Oxford and Bath registered decreases of 23% and 22% respectively. Conversely, cities such as Liverpool, Edinburgh, Inverness, and Manchester have recorded modest increases in visitor numbers, though all under 10%.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) attributes the UK’s tourism underperformance to ‘general cautiousness surrounding international travel,’ exacerbated by unfavourable economic conditions, weak consumer confidence, and lingering pandemic effects. Meanwhile, Britain’s main competitors in Europe are expected to see a return to growth in visitor numbers this year, indicating that the UK is losing ground as a top tourist destination.
A primary factor undermining the UK’s competitiveness is rising costs. Overall prices in 2024 are expected to be 23.5% higher than in 2019, with accommodation costs up by 35.8%, restaurant prices by 28.7%, and airfares surging by 47.6%. Additionally, the abolition of the UK’s tax-free shopping scheme has further dampened the appeal for international visitors.
The analysis underscores that the UK’s tourism sector is grappling with significant challenges, including increased costs and reduced attractiveness compared to its European counterparts. As other destinations recover more swiftly, the UK must address these issues to regain its status as a preferred destination for international tourists.