Despite the stability in headline consumer prices, core inflation—which excludes volatile elements like food and energy—has accelerated from 3.3% to 3.6%, surpassing economists’ expectations of 3.5%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) highlighted that rising airfares, which jumped by 11.9% year-on-year, were the primary driver of inflation in August. Meanwhile, a decline in fuel prices by 3.4% helped keep overall inflation steady. Prices in restaurants and hotels rose at the lowest rate in three years, increasing by 4.4%.
These figures precede Thursday’s meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), where policymakers are expected to maintain the base interest rate at 5%. The Bank, targeting an inflation rate of 2%, made its first interest rate cut in four years this summer and is expected to make gradual cuts moving forward. Markets anticipate one more reduction in 2024, bringing the base rate down to 4.75%.
While overall inflation has stabilised, the rise in core and services inflation—from 5.2% to 5.6%—could concern more hawkish members of the MPC. Goods prices, on the other hand, fell by 0.9% over the year, remaining in deflationary territory. Economists predict that rising energy prices from October will contribute to further inflationary pressures throughout the year, although wage growth, a previous driver of inflation, has started to ease.
Darren Jones, the government’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury, acknowledged the ongoing strain on households despite the levelling off of inflation: “Years of sky-high inflation have taken their toll and prices are still much higher than four years ago. While more manageable inflation is welcome, we know that millions of families across Britain are struggling, which is why we are determined to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.”
In response to the figures, Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, suggested that the uptick in services inflation could rule out an interest rate cut in September: “A pause on interest rate cuts was already expected tomorrow, and today’s release cements that view. We continue to assume the next 25 basis point rate interest rate cut will take place in November.” Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG, also argued that the rise in services inflation “likely closes the door on an interest rate cut tomorrow,” reinforcing the expectation that the MPC will keep rates steady for now.
While the stability in headline inflation offers some relief, the rise in core inflation and the pressures on services may necessitate a cautious approach from policymakers. The upcoming decisions by the MPC will be pivotal in shaping the economic landscape in the months ahead.