GP Bullhound has predicted that 2019 will see technological disruptors break up existing monopolies across various industries, including advertising, apps, and banking. According to the global investment bank’s annual report into the trends that will shape the next 12 months, Google and Facebook are expected to lose out to Amazon in the battle for ad-tech spend. The report, ‘Technology Predictions 2019,’ suggests that Amazon will further disrupt the stronghold on the ad-tech market that Google and Facebook currently command.
Earlier this year, the eCommerce giant became the third-largest digital advertising platform in the US. It is expected to increase its share of digital advertising spending from 4 per cent this year to 7 per cent by 2020. GP Bullhound also envisages that Apple and Google’s grip on app distribution will noticeably slip, as developers like Netflix and Spotify bypass the App Store and Google Play in favour of their own platforms.
The report also predicts that digital banks will continue to flourish in 2019, driven by greater investment, better regulation, and increased innovation. ‘Our report reveals that newcomers in the tech industry will radically reshape sectors that have for a long time been dominated by one or two key players,’ stated Alec Dafferner, a partner at GP Bullhound. ‘We hold a steadfast belief that technology is a force for good – and we commend the entrepreneurs and the ideas that are fuelling this disruption, ultimately delivering better solutions for the world’s consumers.’
Furthermore, technology is set to radically reshape the bricks-and-mortar retail sector. Despite the rise of e-commerce, traditional retail still accounts for 88 per cent of all global retail purchases. The coming year will witness developments and innovations in the physical retail experience, from AI Chatbot systems to the elimination of cashier checkouts.
In the realm of human resources, AI and machine learning are expected to streamline decision-making processes, affecting functions from performance reviews to gender diversity. This has driven an increase in M&A activity within the human capital management sector, with median deal sizes rising from $28 million in 2015 to $300 million in 2018, a trend set to continue.
The ‘last mile’ delivery is another area poised for transformation. With 56 per cent of millennial shoppers expecting same-day shipping, but last mile delivery accounting for 53 per cent of total transportation costs, retailers are turning to innovation to protect margins and accelerate delivery times.
The report also touches on cryptocurrency. Despite the volatility of Bitcoin, traditional financial institutions are increasing their blockchain activity, indicating that 2019 could be the year institutional capital flows into cryptocurrency.
Rather than ending the white-collar workforce, AI is predicted to have a positive impact on working conditions and flexible working. With 31 per cent of companies expected to integrate AI in the next year, the technology will reduce the need for humans to perform time-consuming, menial tasks.
Additionally, the report indicates that consumer subscriptions are set to eclipse advertising as concerns about data misuse and content quality rise. Paid subscription services provide a reliable alternative, with the growth of the digital ad market predicted to slow from 17.7 per cent in 2018 to 8.6 per cent in 2022.
Lastly, the tech industry’s ‘boys club’ is showing signs of breaking down. Female founders and executives are improving access to mentorship, funding, business relationships, and job opportunities for other women seeking to enter the sector.
GP Bullhound’s annual report underscores the significant shifts and trends poised to reshape the technological landscape in 2019. From the rise of new digital advertising players to the increasing influence of AI and innovations in retail and HR, the coming year promises transformative changes across multiple sectors.